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Prediction comparison

Elite Men

26.02.2012 Lima PER
Race information and calculation basis
2012 Lima ITU Triathlon Premium Pan-American Cup

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.02.2012 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.0
Mean swim error19.2 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
Details
0 / 1 Ben Collins
USA
+18 s
+6 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Collins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 12.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Luciano Taccone
ARG
+94 s
+58 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Luciano Taccone

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:39 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Rodrigo Nogueras
ARG
+57 s
+55 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Nogueras

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Adam Bowden
GBR
+24 s
+13 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Bowden

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 11.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:53 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Jorge Luciano Farias
ARG
+16 s
+8 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Jorge Luciano Farias

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Irving Perez
MEX
+25 s
+11 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Irving Perez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:15 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Aaron Harris
GBR
+44 s
+61 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Aaron Harris

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -17.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Matthew Sharp
GBR
+30 s
+16 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Sharp

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Mark Buckingham
GBR
+110 s
+62 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Mark Buckingham

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 48.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Gonzalo Raul Tellechea
ARG
+75 s
+102 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Gonzalo Raul Tellechea

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: -27.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:26 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Jason Wilson
BAR
+21 s
+0 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Jason Wilson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Valentin Mechsheryakov
KAZ
+19 s
+20 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Mechsheryakov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:01 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Harry Wiltshire
GBR
+5 s
+8 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Harry Wiltshire

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -3.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:35 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Csaba Rendes
HUN
+23 s
+17 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Csaba Rendes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 6.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:43 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Lawrence Fanous
JOR
+28 s
+5 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Lawrence Fanous

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 23.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Jens Toft
DEN
+22 s
+2 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Jens Toft

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:16 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Roger Rodriguez
CRC
+68 s
+87 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Roger Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: -19.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:41 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Billy Gordon
PAN
+88 s
+87 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Billy Gordon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: 1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:39 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Gustavo Adolfo Pontaza Pivaral
GUA
+67 s
+149 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Gustavo Adolfo Pontaza Pivaral

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: -82.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.