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65-69 Male AG Sprint

21.09.2024 Vichy FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Championships Vichy

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 43.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.1
Mean swim error56.6 s
Mean bike-speed error2.55 km/h
Correct bike groups3/25
No history5
Within the 80% range26.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Denis Pierrat
FRA
+21 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 20:51
20:10
 55:36
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Pierrat

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 12:22
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 17.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:07 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 55:36
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:22 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 20:51 (4:15 / km)
Total: 55:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 10 Raffaele Buonocore
ITA
+66 s
+71 s
G3 / G4
 22:58
23:02
 58:53
Show details
Prediction details: Raffaele Buonocore

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 13:07
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 35.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:58 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:02 (4:42 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 58:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:07 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:09 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 22:58 (4:41 / km)
Total: 58:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 62.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Paul Haslam
GBR
+238 s
+187 s
G4 / G5
 20:54
19:51
 1:01:27
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Haslam

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +238 s
Time: 15:59
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +187 s
Fehler: 51.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.1 s
Gap behind: 15.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:54 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (4:03 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:27
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:59 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 20:54 (4:16 / km)
Total: 1:01:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 234.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Ewan Cox
GBR
+175 s
+153 s
G4 / G5
 21:04
20:49
 1:01:37
Show details
Prediction details: Ewan Cox

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +175 s
Time: 14:56
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +153 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:49 (4:15 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:37
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:56 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:18 / km)
Total: 1:01:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 171.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Ralf Laermann
GER
+178 s
+120 s
G4 / G5
 21:28
20:38
 1:02:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ralf Laermann

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 14:59
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +120 s
Fehler: 57.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:28 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:38 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:59 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 21:28 (4:23 / km)
Total: 1:02:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
6 / 18 Gary Newell
GBR
+172 s
+339 s
G4 / G12
 22:23
23:45
 1:02:56
Show details
Prediction details: Gary Newell

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +172 s
Time: 14:53
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +339 s
Fehler: -167.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:23 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:45 (4:51 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:56
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:53 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 22:23 (4:34 / km)
Total: 1:02:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 168 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 13 Nick Care
GBR
+181 s
+234 s
G4 / G7
 22:40
21:25
 1:03:13
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Care

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 19–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +181 s
Time: 15:02
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +234 s
Fehler: -52.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:40 (4:37 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:25 (4:22 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:13
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:02 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 22:40 (4:37 / km)
Total: 1:03:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 177.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Peter Hayward
GBR
+114 s
+69 s
G4 / G4
correct 		22:41
22:30
 1:03:14
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Hayward

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +114 s
Time: 13:55
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 45.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.2 s
Gap behind: 47.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:41 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:30 (4:36 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:55 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 22:41 (4:38 / km)
Total: 1:03:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 110.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 21 Robert Rickman
GBR
+229 s
+310 s
G4 / G10
 25:37
26:36
 1:06:10
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Rickman

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +229 s
Time: 15:50
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +310 s
Fehler: -81.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 9.1 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:37 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:36 (5:26 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:10
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:50 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 25:37 (5:14 / km)
Total: 1:06:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 225.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17 Stephen Clark
GBR
+184 s
+132 s
G4 / G8
 26:31
26:27
 1:07:04
Show details
Prediction details: Stephen Clark

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +184 s
Time: 15:05
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +132 s
Fehler: 52.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 40.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:31 (5:25 / km)
Historical basis: 5:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:27 (5:24 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:04
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:05 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 26:31 (5:25 / km)
Total: 1:07:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 180.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14 Phil King
GBR
+334 s
+307 s
G5 / G11
 22:46
21:58
 1:13:09
Show details
Prediction details: Phil King

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 22–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +334 s
Time: 17:35
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +307 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 63.5 s
Gap behind: 32.5 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:46 (4:39 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:58 (4:29 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:09
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:35 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: 22:46 (4:39 / km)
Total: 1:13:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 329.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 24 Roger Burrows
GBR
+366 s
+406 s
G5 / G16
 25:15
25:00
 1:15:38
Show details
Prediction details: Roger Burrows

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +366 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 2:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +406 s
Fehler: -39.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.5 s
Gap behind: 91.9 s
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:15 (5:09 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:00 (5:06 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:15:38
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (2:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: 25:15 (5:09 / km)
Total: 1:15:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 362.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 27 Martin Epkenhans
GER
+270 s
+275 s
G5 / G18
 36:50
28:41
 1:27:13
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Epkenhans

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +270 s
Time: 16:31
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +275 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.1 s
Gap behind: 63.5 s
Result: Group 18 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:50 (7:31 / km)
Historical basis: 7:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:41 (5:51 / km)
Error: +8:09 / +1:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:31 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: 36:50 (7:31 / km)
Total: 1:27:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 266.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Serge Fontaine
FRA
+38 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct
21:02
Show details
Prediction details: Serge Fontaine

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 12:39
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.0 s
Gap behind: 26.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:39 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Alejandro Altuna Elortza
ESP
+0 s
+29 s
G1 / G3
20:35
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Altuna Elortza

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:35 (4:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Tony Sawyer
GBR
+64 s
+57 s
G3 / G3
correct
20:41
Show details
Prediction details: Tony Sawyer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 13:05
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:05 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:09 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 60 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Derek Thomson
GBR
+106 s
+80 s
G3 / G4
21:59
Show details
Prediction details: Derek Thomson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 13:47
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: 26.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 8.2 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:47 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:09 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 102.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Neil Beckingham
GBR
+0 s
+134 s
G0 / G6
22:48
Show details
Prediction details: Neil Beckingham

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +134 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:48 (4:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Eddy Mourmans
BEL
+102 s
+54 s
G3 / G4
24:45
Show details
Prediction details: Eddy Mourmans

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 13:43
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 48.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.8 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:45 (5:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:43 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:09 (34.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 98.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Bernard Stejskal
AUT
+162 s
+128 s
G4 / G7
24:52
Show details
Prediction details: Bernard Stejskal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +162 s
Time: 14:43
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +128 s
Fehler: 34.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 47.8 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:52 (5:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:43 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 158.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Walter Decombes
BEL
+458 s
+414 s
G5 / G9
23:15
Show details
Prediction details: Walter Decombes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +458 s
Time: 19:39
Pace: 2:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +414 s
Fehler: 44.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 91.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:15 (4:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:39 (2:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 454.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Patrick Savey
FRA
+254 s
+188 s
G4 / G7
27:28
Show details
Prediction details: Patrick Savey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +254 s
Time: 16:15
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +188 s
Fehler: 66.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.9 s
Gap behind: 16.1 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:28 (5:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:15 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 250.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Simon Roger Elliot
GBR
+224 s
+297 s
G4 / G11
24:58
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Roger Elliot

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +224 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +297 s
Fehler: -73.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:58 (5:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:45 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:19 (33.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 220.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Hans Richter
GER
+815 s
+495 s
G5 / G14
23:31
Show details
Prediction details: Hans Richter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +815 s
Time: 25:36
Pace: 3:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +495 s
Fehler: 320.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 157.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:31 (4:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:36 (3:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 811.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Gerald Masse
FRA
+0 s
+318 s
G0 / G13
26:04
Show details
Prediction details: Gerald Masse

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +318 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:04 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Luc Godderis
BEL
+459 s
+539 s
G5 / G17
27:02
Show details
Prediction details: Luc Godderis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +459 s
Time: 19:40
Pace: 2:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +539 s
Fehler: -80.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 199.0 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:02 (5:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:40 (2:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 455.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Gerard Van De Bovenkamp
NED
+658 s
+625 s
G5 / G19
24:31
Show details
Prediction details: Gerard Van De Bovenkamp

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +658 s
Time: 22:59
Pace: 3:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +625 s
Fehler: 33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 199.0 s
Gap behind: 157.0 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:31 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:59 (3:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (30.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 654.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28 Michel Barge
FRA
+0 s
+196 s
G0 / G15
31:06
Show details
Prediction details: Michel Barge

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +196 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:06 (6:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 29 Gilles Maire
FRA
+0 s
+619 s
G0 / G20
27:01
Show details
Prediction details: Gilles Maire

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +619 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:01 (5:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Patrice Sens
FRA
+0 s
+365 s
G0 / G21
35:39
Show details
Prediction details: Patrice Sens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +365 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:39 (7:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.