Prediction comparison

55-59 Female AG

15.05.2025 Lerate - Alloz ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Navarra-Pamplona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.05.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

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The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 9/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 18.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 72.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.7

Mean swim error84.8 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

					Details
0 / 1	Katie Young GBR	+70 s +0 s	Bike DNF	23:14 23:40	Show details Prediction details: Katie Young Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 17:00 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 70.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:14 (4:39 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (4:44 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:00 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:14 (4:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Hilarie Maisie Johnston GBR	+140 s +95 s	Bike DNF	23:22 24:35	Show details Prediction details: Hilarie Maisie Johnston Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: 18:10 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: 44.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:22 (4:40 / km) Historical basis: 4:43 / km Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:35 (4:55 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:10 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:22 (4:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Carol Francis GBR	+93 s +80 s	Bike DNF	25:01 25:05	Show details Prediction details: Carol Francis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 17:23 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: 13.2 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 25:01 (5:00 / km) Historical basis: 5:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:05 (5:01 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:23 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:01 (5:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Valerie Ducatillion FRA	+234 s +160 s	Bike DNF	24:43 24:46	Show details Prediction details: Valerie Ducatillion Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +234 s Time: 19:44 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +160 s Fehler: 73.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:43 (4:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:57 / km Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:46 (4:57 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:44 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:43 (4:57 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Helen French GBR	+176 s +167 s	Bike DNF	24:27 25:42	Show details Prediction details: Helen French Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +176 s Time: 18:46 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +167 s Fehler: 8.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:27 (4:53 / km) Historical basis: 4:53 / km Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:42 (5:08 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:46 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:27 (4:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Rebecca Peagram GBR	+153 s +155 s	Bike DNF	25:09 25:29	Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Peagram Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +153 s Time: 18:23 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 25:09 (5:02 / km) Historical basis: 5:01 / km Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:29 (5:06 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 18:23 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:09 (5:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Janet Hope GBR	+0 s +288 s	Bike DNF	24:24	Show details Prediction details: Janet Hope Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 15:50 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +288 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:24 (4:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 15:50 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Jane Turner GBR	+0 s +82 s	Bike DNF	27:41	Show details Prediction details: Jane Turner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 15:50 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:41 (5:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 15:50 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Jane Fontana GBR	+117 s +138 s	Bike DNF	26:30 27:12	Show details Prediction details: Jane Fontana Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +117 s Time: 17:47 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +138 s Fehler: -21.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:30 (5:18 / km) Historical basis: 5:18 / km Best comparable pace: 5:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:12 (5:26 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:47 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:30 (5:18 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Claire Coventry GBR	+198 s +147 s	Bike DNF	26:23 27:38	Show details Prediction details: Claire Coventry Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +198 s Time: 19:08 Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +147 s Fehler: 50.6 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:23 (5:17 / km) Historical basis: 5:16 / km Best comparable pace: 5:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:38 (5:32 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 19:08 (1:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:23 (5:17 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Kim Owen GBR	+277 s +755 s	Bike DNF	25:56 29:41	Show details Prediction details: Kim Owen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +277 s Time: 20:27 Pace: 2:03 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +755 s Fehler: -478.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 25:56 (5:11 / km) Historical basis: 5:11 / km Best comparable pace: 5:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:41 (5:56 / km) Error: −3:45 / −0:45 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:27 (2:03 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:56 (5:11 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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