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70-74 Open AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 72/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 27 früheren Rennen und 257 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 62.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 27 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.8
Mean swim error94.7 s
Mean bike-speed error17.16 km/h
Correct bike groups2/8
No history0
Within the 80% range12.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Corrado Capelli
ITA
+164 s
+157 s
G2 / G4
 34:31
42:54
 1:08:08
Show details
Prediction details: Corrado Capelli

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +164 s
Time: 19:59
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +157 s
Fehler: 6.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 91.9 s
Gap behind: 37.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 16.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:31 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:54 (6:30 / km)
Error: −8:23 / −1:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:08
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:59 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 34:31 (5:14 / km)
Total: 1:08:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 89 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 7 Martin Sanz De La Hoz
ESP
+202 s
+0 s
G3 / G7
 33:23
36:22
 1:10:26
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Sanz De La Hoz

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +202 s
Time: 20:37
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 201.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 37.6 s
Gap behind: 34.1 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 14.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:23 (5:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:22 (5:31 / km)
Error: −2:59 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:37 (2:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:42 (33.5 km/h)
Run: 33:23 (5:03 / km)
Total: 1:10:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 126.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 8 Phil King
GBR
+245 s
+197 s
G5 / G8
 31:02
37:36
 1:10:43
Show details
Prediction details: Phil King

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +245 s
Time: 21:20
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +197 s
Fehler: 47.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:02 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:36 (5:42 / km)
Error: −6:34 / −1:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:43
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:20 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 31:02 (4:42 / km)
Total: 1:10:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 169.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Rainer Kaupp
GER
+242 s
+22 s
G5 / G2
 32:39
38:32
 1:12:20
Show details
Prediction details: Rainer Kaupp

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +242 s
Time: 21:17
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 220.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 16.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:39 (4:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:32 (5:50 / km)
Error: −5:53 / −0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:17 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 32:39 (4:57 / km)
Total: 1:12:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 167.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Stefano Piolanti
ITA
+246 s
+160 s
G5 / G3
 38:50
34:35
 1:18:31
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Piolanti

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +246 s
Time: 21:21
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +160 s
Fehler: 85.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 67.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:50 (5:53 / km)
Historical basis: 5:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:35 (5:14 / km)
Error: +4:15 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:21 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 38:50 (5:53 / km)
Total: 1:18:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 171 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Patrick Finn
GBR
+236 s
+196 s
G4 / G5
 44:58
38:40
 1:23:56
Show details
Prediction details: Patrick Finn

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +236 s
Time: 21:11
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +196 s
Fehler: 39.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 34.1 s
Gap behind: 6.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:58 (6:49 / km)
Historical basis: 6:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:40 (5:52 / km)
Error: +6:18 / +0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:11 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:02 (32.2 km/h)
Run: 44:58 (6:49 / km)
Total: 1:23:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 160.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Michael Skivington
GBR
+313 s
+221 s
G6 / G6
correct 		39:26
41:32
 1:24:38
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Skivington

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +313 s
Time: 22:28
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +221 s
Fehler: 92.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 67.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 15.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:26 (5:59 / km)
Historical basis: 5:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:32 (6:18 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:28 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:58 (28.2 km/h)
Run: 39:26 (5:59 / km)
Total: 1:24:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:30
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 238.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +74.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Rob Van Zanten
NED
+72 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct
31:18
Show details
Prediction details: Rob Van Zanten

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 18:27
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 64.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 91.9 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:18 (4:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 18:27 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:59 (40.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable