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55-59 Male AG

05.05.2023 San Antonio ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Cross Championships Ibiza

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 19.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error13.8
Mean swim error89.3 s
Mean bike-speed error17.37 km/h
Correct bike groups3/26
No history5
Within the 80% range25.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 David Gandon
FRA
+7 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 23:18
30:48
 54:25
Show details
Prediction details: David Gandon

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 15:16
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 17.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:18 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:48 (5:08 / km)
Error: −7:30 / −1:15 / km
Overall prediction: 54:25
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:16 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:00 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 23:18 (3:53 / km)
Total: 54:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4 Gonzalo Martin Santana
ESP
+47 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct 		22:47
28:16
 56:11
Show details
Prediction details: Gonzalo Martin Santana

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 15:56
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.9 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 16.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:47 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:16 (4:43 / km)
Error: −5:29 / −0:55 / km
Overall prediction: 56:11
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:56 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 22:47 (3:48 / km)
Total: 56:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 43 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 10 Grzegorz Zgliczynski
POL
+15 s
+18 s
G3 / G10
 28:16
28:11
 1:01:40
Show details
Prediction details: Grzegorz Zgliczynski

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 15:24
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 31.9 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 14.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:16 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:11 (4:42 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:24 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 28:16 (4:43 / km)
Total: 1:01:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 11.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 14 Paul Ingpen
RSA
+231 s
+164 s
G4 / G11
 27:19
34:04
 1:05:07
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Ingpen

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +231 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +164 s
Fehler: 66.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.6 s
Gap behind: 18.4 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 15.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:19 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:04 (5:41 / km)
Error: −6:45 / −1:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:07
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 19:00 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 27:19 (4:33 / km)
Total: 1:05:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 226.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 19 David Forbes
GBR
+167 s
+259 s
G4 / G17
 34:38
36:10
 1:12:26
Show details
Prediction details: David Forbes

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +167 s
Time: 17:56
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +259 s
Fehler: -92.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.7 s
Gap behind: 10.3 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 14.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:38 (5:46 / km)
Historical basis: 5:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:10 (6:02 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:56 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 34:38 (5:46 / km)
Total: 1:12:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 162.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 29 Harry Riggs
USA
+433 s
+335 s
G5 / G28
 29:50
46:38
 1:28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Harry Riggs

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +433 s
Time: 22:22
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +335 s
Fehler: 97.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 21, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.6 s
Gap behind: 64.4 s
Result: Group 28 (1 people)
Speed: 10.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:50 (4:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:38 (7:46 / km)
Error: −16:48 / −2:48 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:17
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 22:22 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 29:50 (4:58 / km)
Total: 1:28:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 428.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Gerald Will
AUT
+0 s
+49 s
G1 / G1
correct
30:17
Show details
Prediction details: Gerald Will

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -49.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 17.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:17 (5:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:48 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Massimiliano Donati
ITA
+216 s
+169 s
G4 / G2
29:01
Show details
Prediction details: Massimiliano Donati

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +216 s
Time: 18:45
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +169 s
Fehler: 47.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.0 s
Gap behind: 14.6 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:01 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:45 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 212.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Miguel Garcia Rubiño
ESP
+293 s
+236 s
G5 / G3
30:40
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Garcia Rubiño

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +293 s
Time: 20:02
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +236 s
Fehler: 57.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 17.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:40 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:02 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 289.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Carlos Mateos López
ESP
+249 s
+336 s
G4 / G4
correct
30:06
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Mateos López

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +249 s
Time: 19:18
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +336 s
Fehler: -87.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.4 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 17.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:06 (5:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:18 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 245.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Didier Vandenbosch
BEL
+367 s
+329 s
G5 / G7
28:03
Show details
Prediction details: Didier Vandenbosch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +367 s
Time: 21:16
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +329 s
Fehler: 38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 24.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 16.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:03 (4:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:16 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 363.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Martin Landquist
NOR
+177 s
+176 s
G4 / G5
30:06
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Landquist

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +177 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +176 s
Fehler: 1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.3 s
Gap behind: 39.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 21.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:06 (5:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:06 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 173.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Tomas Klimek
CZE
+53 s
+136 s
G3 / G6
30:41
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Klimek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 16:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: -83.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 84.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 16.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:41 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 16:02 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 49.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Mike O'Donovan
RSA
+0 s
+267 s
G1 / G8
31:58
Show details
Prediction details: Mike O'Donovan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +267 s
Fehler: -267.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:58 (5:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:48 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12 Jose Luis Bru Gimenez
ESP
+291 s
+302 s
G5 / G12
31:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Luis Bru Gimenez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +291 s
Time: 20:00
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +302 s
Fehler: -11.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 15.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:48 (5:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 20:00 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 287.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Eddi Turi
FRA
+137 s
+306 s
G3 / G13
32:32
Show details
Prediction details: Eddi Turi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +137 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +306 s
Fehler: -169.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 84.0 s
Gap behind: 29.7 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 15.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:32 (5:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 133.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Iván Valencia Baldoví
ESP
+391 s
+296 s
G5 / G19
32:21
Show details
Prediction details: Iván Valencia Baldoví

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +391 s
Time: 21:40
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +296 s
Fehler: 95.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.0 s
Gap behind: 13.0 s
Result: Group 19 (2 people)
Speed: 13.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (5:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 21:40 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 387.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Joost Van Ulden
CAN
+358 s
+206 s
G5 / G15
39:31
Show details
Prediction details: Joost Van Ulden

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +358 s
Time: 21:07
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +206 s
Fehler: 152.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 14.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:31 (6:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 21:07 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 354.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Arnd Hille
GER
+0 s
+262 s
G0 / G16
36:11
Show details
Prediction details: Arnd Hille

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +262 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 14.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:11 (6:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Paul Keavney
GBR
+577 s
+275 s
G5 / G14
41:56
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Keavney

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +577 s
Time: 24:46
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +275 s
Fehler: 302.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 23, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 80.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 15.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:56 (6:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 24:46 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 573.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 John Boakes
AUS
+0 s
+180 s
G0 / G18
38:08
Show details
Prediction details: John Boakes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (1 people)
Speed: 13.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:08 (6:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Julian Lopez Gastón
ESP
+329 s
+311 s
G5 / G19
39:47
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Lopez Gastón

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +329 s
Time: 20:38
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +311 s
Fehler: 18.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 29.0 s
Result: Group 19 (2 people)
Speed: 14.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:47 (6:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:38 (2:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 325.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Scott Wilson
AUS
+320 s
+172 s
G5 / G24
31:54
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Wilson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +320 s
Time: 20:29
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +172 s
Fehler: 148.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 24 (1 people)
Speed: 12.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:54 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:29 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 316.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Bradley Cope
USA
+0 s
+381 s
G0 / G23
35:44
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Cope

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +381 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 23 (1 people)
Speed: 13.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:44 (5:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Pascal Mercier
BEL
+0 s
+212 s
G0 / G22
38:45
Show details
Prediction details: Pascal Mercier

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +212 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 12.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:45 (6:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Aj Johnson
USA
+259 s
+367 s
G4 / G20
41:58
Show details
Prediction details: Aj Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +259 s
Time: 19:28
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +367 s
Fehler: -108.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 13.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:58 (7:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 19:28 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 255.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Scott Winnard
GBR
+318 s
+405 s
G5 / G21
40:25
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Winnard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +318 s
Time: 20:27
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +405 s
Fehler: -87.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 13.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:25 (6:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:27 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 314.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 27 Adrian Wenban
AUS
+267 s
+333 s
G4 / G25
43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Adrian Wenban

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +267 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +333 s
Fehler: -66.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 24.0 s
Result: Group 25 (1 people)
Speed: 12.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:31 (7:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 19:36 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 263.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28 Jukka Valkonen
USA
+497 s
+328 s
G5 / G26
54:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jukka Valkonen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +497 s
Time: 23:26
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +328 s
Fehler: 169.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 22, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 64.4 s
Gap behind: 80.0 s
Result: Group 26 (1 people)
Speed: 12.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:53 (9:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:26 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 493.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30 Robert Ballou
USA
+404 s
+499 s
G5 / G29
47:20
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Ballou

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +404 s
Time: 21:53
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +499 s
Fehler: -95.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 20, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.0 s
Gap behind: 28.6 s
Result: Group 29 (1 people)
Speed: 11.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:20 (7:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:53 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:13
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 400.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31 Richard Szymanski
USA
+0 s
+486 s
G0 / G27
50:02
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Szymanski

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +486 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 27 (1 people)
Speed: 11.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:02 (8:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.