Prediction comparison

70-74 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 19/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.7 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.5

Mean swim error134.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Neil Arundel GBR	+2 s +0 s	Bike DNF	23:28 23:48	Show details Prediction details: Neil Arundel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 17:44 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 23:28 (4:42 / km) Historical basis: 4:41 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:48 (4:46 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:44 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:28 (4:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Alain Greco FRA	+34 s +80 s	Bike DNF	22:47 23:36	Show details Prediction details: Alain Greco Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 18:16 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -46.2 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:36 (4:43 / km) Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 18:16 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Martin Sanz De La Hoz ESP	+202 s +188 s	Bike DNF	28:26 22:38	Show details Prediction details: Martin Sanz De La Hoz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +202 s Time: 21:04 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +188 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 28:26 (5:41 / km) Historical basis: 5:41 / km Best comparable pace: 5:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:38 (4:32 / km) Error: +5:48 / +1:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:04 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:26 (5:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Alain Maubras FRA	+89 s +358 s	Bike DNF	24:53 24:30	Show details Prediction details: Alain Maubras Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 19:11 Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +358 s Fehler: -269.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:53 (4:59 / km) Historical basis: 5:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:30 (4:54 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:11 (1:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:53 (4:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lindsay Young GBR	+264 s +237 s	Bike DNF	24:50 25:35	Show details Prediction details: Lindsay Young Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +264 s Time: 22:06 Pace: 2:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +237 s Fehler: 27.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:50 (4:58 / km) Historical basis: 4:56 / km Best comparable pace: 4:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:35 (5:07 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:06 (2:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:50 (4:58 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Rainer Kaupp GER	+84 s +316 s	Bike DNF	31:52 27:24	Show details Prediction details: Rainer Kaupp Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 19:06 Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +316 s Fehler: -231.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 31:52 (6:22 / km) Historical basis: 6:30 / km Best comparable pace: 6:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.01 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:24 (5:29 / km) Error: +4:28 / +0:54 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:06 (1:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:52 (6:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Michael Lisle GBR	+61 s +367 s	Bike DNF	26:58 27:30	Show details Prediction details: Michael Lisle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 18:43 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +367 s Fehler: -306.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:58 (5:24 / km) Historical basis: 5:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:30 (5:30 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:43 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:58 (5:24 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Tony Main GBR	+738 s +546 s	Bike DNF	28:41 29:29	Show details Prediction details: Tony Main Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +738 s Time: 30:00 Pace: 3:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +546 s Fehler: 192.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 28:41 (5:44 / km) Historical basis: 5:45 / km Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:29 (5:54 / km) Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 30:00 (3:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:41 (5:44 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Colin Mitchell GBR	+541 s +521 s	Bike DNF	27:36 29:23	Show details Prediction details: Colin Mitchell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +541 s Time: 26:43 Pace: 2:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +521 s Fehler: 20.1 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 27:36 (5:31 / km) Historical basis: 5:28 / km Best comparable pace: 5:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:23 (5:53 / km) Error: −1:47 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 26:43 (2:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:36 (5:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Manuel Martín Fernández ESP	+550 s +736 s	Bike DNF	27:26 28:39	Show details Prediction details: Manuel Martín Fernández Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +550 s Time: 26:52 Pace: 2:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +736 s Fehler: -186.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 27:26 (5:29 / km) Historical basis: 5:26 / km Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:39 (5:44 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 26:52 (2:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:26 (5:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Martin Epkenhans GER	+363 s +592 s	Bike DNF	32:31 33:28	Show details Prediction details: Martin Epkenhans Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +363 s Time: 23:45 Pace: 2:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +592 s Fehler: -228.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 32:31 (6:30 / km) Historical basis: 6:28 / km Best comparable pace: 6:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:28 (6:42 / km) Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:45 (2:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:31 (6:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Gerd Scheibe GER	+121 s +207 s	Bike DNF	51:37	Show details Prediction details: Gerd Scheibe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +121 s Time: 19:43 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +207 s Fehler: -86.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 51:37 (10:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 19:43 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total